Among immigration professionals, there is a joke that if you go to the washroom, you will miss a change in policy. The amendments to legislation and changes to IRCC programs are so prevalent, we have to work in an environment of uncertainty and unpredictability. I regularly meet with individuals who apply to defunct programs, and they are frustrated after IRCC has refused their application. With a huge disclaimer that we have no inside knowledge, here are our predictions for the Canadian immigration system for 2026.
Prediction #1: Closing Doors for Temporary Residents
Minister Diab’s Immigration Levels plan for 2026-2028, following her predecessor’s plan, has been very clear. She wants to decrease the temporary resident population to below 5%. Based on the latest figures, the temporary resident population in Canada amounted to roughly 7.1%. Reducing this group to below 5% will not be easy. Many foreigners have already been granted TRVs and other permits. Temporary foreign workers are needed in many sectors and there are businesses across Canada that need support.
As noted by RBC, international students may be significantly impacted by these changes:
Prediction #2: Increased Focus on Labour Market Shortages
It is clear from Express Entry draws as well as the draws from PNP programs that all levels of government are focused on labour market shortages. We do not expect another CEC draw where 27,000 ITAs were issued on a single date. The IRCC program for out-of-status construction workers in the GTA was largely successful. This program was focused on a particular shortage and it targeted that problem.
Express Entry draws for healthcare workers is becoming increasingly common. Here in Manitoba, the MPNP program has been focused on strategic recruitment initiatives. Contrary to previous years when we used to see draws from the general pool of applicants, recent MPNP draws have been focused on certain areas.
The recent announcement that IRCC has stopped accepting Start Up Visa applications and, in 2026, they plan to announce a new, targeted pilot program. We predict a shift in IRCC programs to focus on very specific labour market shortages, depending on regional circumstances.
Prediction #3: Increase Francophone Community Outside Quebec
The Liberal government has been very clear that cuts to programs only apply to English-speaking applicants. Francophone applicants who have the intention to settle outside Quebec have a strong chance at being selected. We predict this policy will continue in 2026.
Express Entry draws in with “French language proficiency” have become the easiest way to get an ITA. It’s not even close. A recent draw within that category applied to all applicants with a CRS score about 399.
Prediction #4: Cuts to Open Work Permits
Unfortunately, the Canadian Work Permit system has seen a lot of abuse. We have international students who are taking short study programs with the expectation they may achieve PR. We have cautioned applicants against taking stort study programs for years. We have seen many applicants on PGWPs who are taking menial jobs, not related to their studies, to get the Canadian work experience. We see clients who are working 2 or 3 jobs on Open Work Permits to send funds home to their families abroad.
My understanding is that international students in the USA do not have access to a generous PGWP (Open Work Permit). We predict IRCC will increase conditions on PGWPs.
IRCC has been clear that it does not support applicants who are not using the programs as intended. We predict Open Work Permits will become increasingly rare in 2016.
Prediction #5: Overhaul to LMIA (Low Wage)
In 2024, Minister Boissonnault made significant changes to the LMIA program. Certain politicians called for the entire low-wage LMIA program to be completely cancelled.
To an extent, the current LMIA program reminds me of the LMO system prior to 2014. At that time, there was widespread abuse of the LMO program. The government implemented many changes, including increasingly the application fees from $275 to $1,000.
We have been successful with LMIA (Low Wage) applications when the program was open. Now that the unemployment rate in Manitoba is above 6%, we are advising client on alternatives.
We predict Minister Patty Hajdu will make significant changes to the LMIA program.
Prediction #6: Restrictions to Inside Canada Refugee Determination System
Former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau famously said, “Living next to [the USA] is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” I am not going opine on whether the Trump Administration has committed war crimes or crimes against humanity. It is very clear the USA is making efforts to deport people seeking asylum. Since 2016, Canada has been a sanctuary for many of these groups.
We predict the Canadian government is going to make it very difficult to obtain refugee protection in 2026. Bill C-2 and Bill C-12 may become law very soon. That legislation includes significant cuts to refugee claimants.
Prediction #7: Increase in Scams and Abuse by Shady Agents
It is clear that IRCC is going to focus on forcing TFWs and Int’l Students to leave Canada in 2026. In an environment where foreigners in Canada are desperate to stay and they don’t have clear legal options, this will create circumstances ripe for scams and abuse. It is clear there are many unscrupulous immigration agents and ghost consultants who will take $$$ and sell false hope. It is also clear that IRCC takes a caveat emptor approach to representation. They take no responsibility for applicants who are the victims of these scams.
We predict the number of scams and abuse to significantly increase in 2026.
Prediction #8: IRCC will (continue) to Embrace AI Tools
I recently attended a presentation, “101 on Automated Decision-Making in Canadian Immigration” by Will Tao and Karina Juma. They have been doing amazing work to hold IRCC to task for all the AI tools that are being developed by the government. This message was echoed during the 2025 CBA National Conference where I moderated a panel. Speakers from IRCC and the DOJ reiterated that the final decisions are being made by a person. For now.
Will noted there are currently at least 12 AI tools under development to assist Officers: 1. Chinook (CIL has successfully litigated on the use of this tool); 2. Cumulus; 3. Cardinal; 4. Harvester; 5. Peregrine; 6. Seaweed; 7. Valida; 8. IPRMS (credit card payments); 9. SARA; 10. IRCC GPT; 11. Asylum Interoperability Project; 12. FinDec (Express Entry).
We predict that IRCC Officers and CBSA Officers will increasingly rely on AI tools in 2026.
Prediction #9: GARs/ SAHs/ G5 and other Private Sponsorship programs will be paused
IRCC paused these PSR programs in 2024 and they recently extended the pause until late 2026. We predict that pause will be extended further into 2027. The current government does not seem to have any inclination to reinstate these programs.
Prediction #10: The H&C Application will be overhauled
In previous years, the H&C application processing times were between 2 to 3 years. IRCC cut the program significantly in 2024 and then made further cuts in NOV 2025. Currently, there are approximately 49,000 applications in the backlog and IRCC has announced it will accept approximately 1,000 per year, from 2026 to 2028. If my math is correct, it will take more than 49 years to process the backlog at this pace. This is, of course, ridiculous and no applicant can wait that long for a decision.
Bill C-2 includes powers to completely wipe out backlogs. We predict that Bill C-2, in some form, will pass and the government will wipe out the 49,000 applications in the H&C backlog for a fresh start. These applicants are among the most vulnerable people in Canada and it will be very difficult for them to fight back. In the past, IRCC (then CIC) wiped out the backlog for the investor program and the government faced significant litigation. That group, of course, had the financial means to litigate.
Summary
We meet new clients almost every day. As noted by one of my professors at Queen’s Law, no one wants to meet with a lawyer. If someone contacts our office for help, they are dealing with a situation that requires expertise. To an extent, all immigration applications under the current system require expertise. IRCC has created levels upon levels of complexity and Officers are highly critical of every situation. No matter how the system changes, we will do our best to help clients achieve their immigration goals in 2026 and for many years to come.
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